Hot Markets: October 2021

We are continuing our Hot Markets blog series, and dissecting the data we compiled in October to show you the hottest trends in the classic and exotic car market last month. This is our 2nd month of this series – take a look at the charts below and let us know if you find this useful, or if you have other ideas on what you’d like to see. 

It is worth noting that the Markets we refer to in this post are different from our monthly Top 10 Models chart, which looks at model families as a whole (ie, 911, Corvette, etc). Here, we are taking a deeper dive into the specific model variants that are ‘moving the market’. 

To start, let’s compare with some simple data points, Dollar Volume and Sales Count:

The top 4 markets in terms of Dollar Volume* for October 2021 all had over 2 million in USD sales:

Out of these 10 markets, only 1 is returning from last month: the BMW Z8 moved up from 8th hottest market last month, to 3rd this month. 

Which makes us want to look a little bit beyond just last month:

Here you can see the markets that saw the highest growth rate in their historic average price during the last 12 months. Consistent with last month’s data, most of the growth we are seeing is in markets with reasonable prices, and not necessarily in those with the million-dollar cars. The top 5 markets showing growth this month were:

But average price doesn’t tell the entire story. Using CMV**, we get a better representation of a market’s current value based on the recency of sales. An increase in CMV is a better indicator of market growth than average price.

Here are the top 10 markets in terms of their CMV growth over the last 12 months.

Interestingly, we see the Audi R8 V10 (Type 42) in this list, but a different variant than we saw with average price. The 3rd gen Ford Thunderbird tops the list with an increase of 25%, followed by the BMW E46 M3 Competition Package-Manual with a 17%. As with the average price, 8/10 of these top growing markets are all under $50K, reflecting the trend of online auctions and mid-range models that we’ve been seeing shift the market since even before the pandemic started. 

But we saved the best for last:

This final chart compares CMV growth vs historical average prices. By comparing these metrics, we can easily spot those markets where value is consistently increasing. Specifically, topping this list are the:

Is there anything else you’d like to see us explore for next month’s markets? Let us know in the comments. We’ve got data, and we’re gonna use it.

* Dollar Volume: The aggregate value of all sales in a specific market in USD.

** CMV: The CLASSIC.COM Market Value (CMV) is a proprietary valuation metric that should be used as a benchmark for cars in any given market.

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